Freehold vs Leasehold: What the Numbers Actually Say
The premium is smaller than the fear. The decay is slower than the fear, until it isn't. Bala's curve, the financing cliffs, and the holding-period maths.
The short version
The freehold premium is real but smaller than most buyers think. In comparable locations it typically runs 10 to 20 percent over a 99-year leasehold.
Lease decay is real too, but it is slow for decades and fast at the end. On the valuation model Singapore uses, a fresh 99-year lease is worth about 96% of freehold. At 60 years remaining, about 80%. At 30 years, about 60%.
So the tenure question is mostly not about tenure. It is about how long you plan to hold. Answer that honestly and the right answer usually picks itself.
The three tenures
99-year, 999-year, freehold
99-year leasehold. The default. All HDB flats, all executive condos, and most new launch condos sit on 99-year leases sold through the Government Land Sales programme. The clock starts when the lease is issued, so a new launch may have about 97 to 98 years left by the time it is completed.
999-year leasehold. Economically the same as freehold. The lease outlasts any owner and any lender's concern, and the market prices it almost exactly like freehold.
Freehold. "Estate in fee simple", in the legal phrasing. No clock at all. Supply is fixed and small, which is part of what the premium pays for.
The decay curve
Bala's Table: what a lease is worth as it runs down
Source: Bala's Table, the leasehold relativity model referenced by the Singapore Land Authority and used by valuers and banks · decay-rate estimates from checkhowmuch.sg analysis, 2026.
| Value vs freeholdBala's Table | Indicative decay paceper year, at that stage | What it means for you | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 yrs (fresh) | ~96% | ~0.1–0.2% | Market treats 75+ years remaining as near-fresh. Full CPF, full loans. |
| 60 yrs left | ~80% | ~0.4% | Financing still fine for most buyers. Younger buyers start hitting CPF pro-ration soon after. |
| 50 yrs left | ~75% | ~0.5% | Loan tenures shorten. The traditional sweet spot to sell is before this point. |
| 40 yrs left | ~67% | ~0.8% | Decay accelerates. Some banks quote lower LTVs or decline. |
| 30 yrs left | ~60% | Faster | Most banks will not lend. Buyer pool thins to cash-heavy buyers. |
| 20 yrs left | ~49% | Fastest | Below 20 years, CPF cannot be used at all. Effectively cash-only transactions. |
| Verdict | Decay is gentle for the first few decades and steep past the 60-year mark, exactly where CPF and loan rules start shrinking the buyer pool. The curve is not the risk. The financing cliffs sitting on it are. | ||
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The two cliffs
Where lease decay actually bites: CPF and bank rules
Bala's Table is a valuation model. What moves real transaction prices is your buyer's financing, and two rulebooks decide that.
The CPF rule. You can use CPF in full only if the remaining lease covers the youngest buyer to age 95. Otherwise usage is pro-rated, and if the remaining lease is under 20 years, CPF cannot be used at all. Worked example: a 40-year-old buys a flat with 50 years of lease left. The lease covers them to age 90, not 95, so their CPF usage is pro-rated to roughly 50/55 of the usual limit. The shortfall becomes cash.
The bank rule. Loan tenure cannot exceed the remaining lease minus a buffer, so a flat with 50 years left might support only a 20-year loan where a newer property gets 30. Below about 60 years remaining, terms tighten across the market. Below 30, most banks decline outright, whatever your income.
Why this matters more than the curve. When your future buyer cannot use CPF freely or borrow fully, your buyer pool shrinks, and prices clear below what Bala alone would suggest. That is why values sag faster past the 60-year mark, and why the time to plan your exit is the day you buy, not the day you sell.
The en-bloc question
Freehold's quiet advantage in collective sales
In an en-bloc sale, a developer buys the site, not the flats. On freehold or 999-year land, there is nothing to fix: the developer pays for the site and the owners split the proceeds.
On leasehold, an old project must have its lease topped back up to a fresh term before redevelopment, and that top-up is a premium paid to the state. The shorter the remaining lease, the bigger the top-up, the thinner the developer's margin, and the lower the chance anyone bids. En-bloc potential on leasehold decays alongside the lease itself.
My honest advice: treat en-bloc potential as a bonus, never as the plan. Most leasehold projects will never collectively sell, and buying an ageing flat purely on en-bloc hope is how people end up holding a wasting asset for a decade.
Worked example
$1.8M leasehold vs $2.05M freehold, same district
Illustration: a 14% freehold premium ($250K), inside the typical 10–20% range. Same district, similar size and age of building.
Hold 20 years, then sell
Hold 40 years, or for the kids
Under about 20 years, in a decent location, leasehold usually wins on return on capital. Multi-generational holds, or buying into an already-old leasehold, change the answer.
Who each suits
My honest read, by buyer type
Leasehold suits you if you are buying a home or an investment for a normal hold of up to about 20 years. Most new launch condos and all ECs are 99-year, and the first decades of a lease are the cheapest decay you will ever buy. Browse the new launch hub or the resale condo guide with that lens.
Freehold suits you if you are buying a multi-generational asset, you want en-bloc economics on your side, or you simply cannot stand a clock on your property. Pay the premium with your eyes open: it is insurance, not a guaranteed outperformance.
Older leasehold (under 60 years left) suits a narrow buyer: cash-strong, clear-eyed about the exit, and pricing the financing cliffs into the offer. If that is you, the discounts can be real. If it isn't, walk past.
Common questions
Freehold vs leasehold, answered straight
Economically, yes. A 999-year lease outlasts any owner, any lender's concern and any valuation model's horizon, so the market prices 999-year properties almost exactly like freehold. The legal form differs; the practical value does not.
Yes. HDB flats are 99-year leasehold, so the same Bala's Table maths and the same CPF and bank financing cliffs apply. Roughly a third of Singapore's HDB stock is more than 35 years old, which is why lease decay has become a mainstream planning issue.
Yes, provided the remaining lease covers the youngest buyer to age 95. If it does not, CPF usage is pro-rated. If the remaining lease falls below 20 years, CPF cannot be used at all. A 30-year-old buying with 55 years left reaches only age 85, so pro-ration applies.
No. On return on capital over a normal holding period, leasehold often wins because the entry price is 10 to 20 percent lower and the decay drag in the first few decades is small. Freehold's advantage shows up over multi-generational holds and in en-bloc economics.
Not automatically, but go in with open eyes. Below 60 years, bank tenures shorten and CPF pro-ration begins for younger buyers, which shrinks your future exit pool. The price must compensate you for that, and you should plan your exit before the lease nears 50.
Tenure question on a specific unit?
Send me the project name
Tenure advice is only useful against a real property and a real holding plan. Tell me the project, the price and how long you expect to hold, and I will tell you whether the premium is worth paying on that unit, or whether the leasehold next door is the smarter buy.