A record $1.43 billion for a Bedok plot: what $1,537 psf ppr means for the East
Four developers bid for the New Upper Changi Road site. One of them bid 13.8% more than everybody else and broke two national records in the same envelope. Here is what they bought, what I think it launches at, and what it does to the flat you already own in Bedok.
The short version. The tender for the Government Land Sales site at New Upper Changi Road and Bedok South Road closed at noon on 1 September 2026 with four bids, and was awarded on 4 September 2026. A joint venture of UOL Group, CapitaLand Development and Singapore Land Group won it with S$1,425,388,000, or about S$1,537 per square foot per plot ratio. That is 13.8% above the second-highest bid, and it sets two records at once: the highest land rate ever paid for a pure residential GLS site in the Outside Central Region, and the highest total sum ever paid for one.
What they bought: about 331,198 sq ft of land, a maximum gross floor area of 927,362 sq ft, a 99-year lease, and permission for roughly 1,010 homes a five-minute walk from Bedok MRT and the bus interchange. Published analyst estimates put the eventual launch price somewhere between S$2,850 and S$3,000-plus psf, most likely in 2028. My own estimate is S$2,950 to S$3,200 psf, centred on about S$3,050 — which puts a two-bedroom home near S$2.05 million and the cheapest way in at about S$1.6 million.
I sell in the East. So the message I got most this week was not about the record. It was some version of: does this mean my place is worth more now? The honest answer has three parts, and only one of them is a yes. Let me lay out the facts first, then do the arithmetic that most of the coverage skipped, then tell you what I actually think.
S$1.4254b
Winning bid, 1 Sep 2026
S$1,537
Per sq ft per plot ratio
~1,010
Homes, 99-year lease
4 bids
Top bid 13.8% clear
The facts
What was sold, and to whom
This was a Confirmed List site under the first-half 2026 GLS Programme. URA launched the tender on 15 May 2026 and it ran for three and a half months, which is a long runway and tells you the state expected serious money for it.
Sources: URA Government Land Sales tender results · tender closed 1 Sep 2026, site awarded 4 Sep 2026
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Location | New Upper Changi Road, at Bedok South Road, in the Bedok planning area. Roughly a five-minute walk from the Bedok integrated transport hub. |
| Site area | 30,769.0 sq m — about 331,198 sq ft. |
| Maximum GFA | 86,154 sq m — about 927,362 sq ft. That is a plot ratio of 2.8. |
| Yield | About 1,010 private residential units. |
| Tenure | 99 years from the date of the lease. |
| Tender launched | 15 May 2026, on the Confirmed List of the 1H2026 GLS Programme. |
| Tender closed | 12 noon, 1 September 2026. Four bids received. |
| Awarded | 4 September 2026. |
| Winning entities | United Venture Development (Daisy) Pte Ltd and CL Sapphire Pte Ltd — the vehicles for UOL Group, CapitaLand Development and Singapore Land Group. |
| Price | S$1,425,388,000. About S$16,545 per sq m of GFA, or S$1,537 psf ppr. |
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The four bids · Source: URA tender results, 1 Sep 2026
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The records
Two records, broken in the same envelope
Records get announced loosely in property coverage, so it is worth being precise about which two fell here, because they mean different things.
Record one, the rate. S$1,537 psf ppr is the most ever paid for a pure residential GLS site in the Outside Central Region — the mass-market band that covers most of Singapore outside the city fringe and the core. The previous mark was S$1,388 psf ppr, set in March 2025 by SingHaiyi and Haiyi Holdings for the Bayshore Road plot, which is now the 515-unit Vela Bay. This bid clears that by 10.7%.
Record two, the money. S$1,425,388,000 is the largest sum ever paid for a pure residential GLS site anywhere in Singapore, of any region. It beats the S$1.284 billion paid for the Dunman Road plot in June 2022, which became the 1,008-unit Grand Dunman. Note the near-identical unit counts: 1,008 there, about 1,010 here. Four years and one district apart, almost the same building, S$141 million more for the dirt.
OCR pure-residential GLS land rates, by award date · Sources: URA tender results, 2023–2026
Swipe to see the full run →
Why the 13.8% gap is the real story, not the record
A record set by a whisker means the market moved. A record set by S$173 million means one bidder saw something the others did not, or was willing to accept a thinner return to get it. Both readings are worth holding.
The three losing bids — CDL with Hong Realty, GuocoLand with Hong Leong Holdings and TID, and Sim Lian — are not casual players. They clustered at S$1,310 to S$1,350, which is a two-and-a-half percent spread across three independently assembled feasibility models. That is about as close to a market valuation as you will ever see published.
So what might the winners be seeing? A few candidates, and I want to be clear these are inferences, not statements of fact:
- Balance-sheet scale. A three-party consortium spreads S$1.43 billion three ways. UOL and SingLand are related parties, and CapitaLand Development brings its own capacity. Each partner is writing a cheque that is large but not existential, which lets the joint venture accept a lower return on equity than a single-balance-sheet bidder could.
- Replacement cost. Sites of this size next to an MRT interchange in a mature estate come up perhaps once a decade. If you believe the next comparable plot is five years away, paying up once is cheaper than being absent from the East for five years.
- A different product assumption. The gap is roughly what you would get if you assumed launch pricing about S$150 to S$200 psf above what the other three assumed. That is not a wild difference. It is one confident view about 2028 pricing versus three cautious ones.
The demand case
Why Bedok, and why a developer would pay up for it
Every analyst who commented on this site said a version of the same thing, and for once I think the consensus is right. This is not a bet on a view or a postcode. It is a bet on a very specific, countable pool of people who already live within three kilometres of the plot and are getting ready to move.
1. The upgrader pool is unusually large, and unusually liquid
Nearly 2,300 HDB flats in Bedok crossed their five-year minimum occupation period between 2022 and 2026. Looking forward, an estimated 9,500 four- and five-room flats across the wider Bedok and Tampines belt reach MOP between 2026 and 2029 — which is exactly the window in which this project would be selling.
More importantly, those households have demonstrated they can pay. In the first seven months of 2026, Bedok recorded 755 HDB resale transactions, of which 44 crossed a million dollars. The whole of 2025 produced 39. Bedok beat its own annual record before August. An owner selling a million-dollar flat with a paid-down loan is walking away with the deposit for a S$2.2 million condo without touching their savings.
2. There has been nothing new to buy there for fifteen years
ERA’s reading, and I agree with it, is that the Bedok Central area has not seen a new private launch in roughly fifteen years. Every household in that catchment who wanted a new private home in the last decade had to leave the neighbourhood to get one — to Tanah Merah, to Upper East Coast, or further. Pent-up demand is an overused phrase, but a fifteen-year gap next to an MRT interchange is a real one.
3. Right-sizers from the landed estates
This is the part I think is underweighted in the coverage. The site sits close to the Opera Estate, Kew and Jalan Limau landed clusters, and Siglap is a short drive. Realion’s deputy group chief executive Justin Quek made the same point: right-sizers from nearby landed homes may be drawn to the project. A couple in their sixties selling a S$5 million terrace can buy two large units here outright and still bank a seven-figure sum. That buyer does not care about the psf headline at all. They care about lifts, security and being able to walk to the MRT.
4. The transport and schools are already built
The site is about five minutes on foot from the Bedok integrated transport hub — Bedok MRT on the East–West Line plus the bus interchange — with Bedok Mall on top of it and Heartbeat @ Bedok nearby. Tanah Merah is one stop east. ERA counts two primary schools within one kilometre. Within roughly two kilometres sit Red Swastika, St Stephen’s, Anglican High, St Patrick’s, Victoria School, Temasek JC and Victoria JC.
Bedok demand indicators · Sources: HDB resale data and market commentary, Jan–Jul 2026; ERA and Knight Frank commentary, Sep 2026
| Indicator | Figure | Why it matters here |
|---|---|---|
| Bedok HDB resale deals | 755 (Jan–Jul 2026) | A liquid resale market. Upgraders can actually sell before they buy. |
| Million-dollar flats in Bedok | 44 (Jan–Jul 2026), vs 39 in all of 2025 | Record broken before August. Proof the exit equity exists. |
| Bedok flats reaching MOP | ~2,300 (2022–2026) | The pool that is already free to move. |
| Bedok & Tampines 4- and 5-room MOP | ~9,500 (2026–2029) | Lands squarely in the selling window for this project. |
| Years since a new launch near Bedok Central | ~15 | No recent comparable supply competing for the same buyer. |
| Units this project must sell | ~1,010 | Large, but small against the MOP pool. That is the whole bet. |
Swipe to see the full table →
The arithmetic
What this land has to sell for, worked out in the open
Most coverage of a land bid stops at the record and then quotes a launch price estimate with no working shown. I would rather show you the sum, because then you can disagree with a specific number instead of with a vibe.
Everything below is my own arithmetic on stated assumptions. It is not a broker’s published figure and the developer has said nothing about pricing. Move any input and the answer moves.
The cost stack, per square foot of gross floor area
- Land: S$1,537. This one is a fact, not an assumption. S$1,425,388,000 over 927,362 sq ft of maximum GFA.
- Construction: S$450. My assumption. Published cost guidance puts Singapore condominium construction at roughly S$300 to S$600 psf of GFA, with mass-market projects at the lower end and premium ones above S$500. I have taken S$450 as a central case for a large, dense, urban project completing at the end of this decade rather than one costed today. A 1,010-unit scheme gets some economy of scale; a 2.8 plot ratio and a tight urban site gives some of it back. I flex this from S$400 to S$500 later on.
- Everything else: S$330. Professional fees, financing over roughly five years, marketing and agency commission, contingency, and the non-remittable slice of Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty that housing developers pay on residential land. On a S$1.43 billion land price that last item alone is real money.
Total: about S$2,317 per square foot of GFA.
Cost stack versus revenue, per sq ft of GFA · My arithmetic on the assumptions stated above, not a published estimate
Swipe to see both columns →
How sensitive is it? Very
Two inputs decide almost everything: the launch price, and how much of the gross floor area ends up as strata area a buyer pays for. Here is the same sum run across both.
Developer margin at different launch prices and efficiency ratios · My arithmetic, assuming total costs of S$2,317 psf GFA
| Launch price | Margin at 85% efficiency | Margin at 88% efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| S$2,850 psf | ~4.4% | ~7.6% |
| S$2,900 psf | ~6.0% | ~9.2% |
| S$3,000 psf | ~9.1% | ~12.2% |
| S$3,100 psf | ~12.1% | ~15.1% |
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The share of the price that is just dirt
Here is the single most useful way I know to read a land bid. Forget the record. Ask what fraction of the eventual selling price the developer has already committed to the state before building anything.
Land cost as a share of launch price · Sources: URA tender results; launch prices from developer and caveat data. The third row uses an estimated launch price.
Swipe to compare all three →
The clock
The five-year clock nobody puts in the headline
Here is the constraint that shapes this project more than any market forecast, and it is a rule rather than an opinion. A housing developer buying residential land in Singapore pays Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty up front. A large part of it is remitted — but only if the developer completes the development and sells every last unit within five years of acquiring the site. A separate slice is non-remittable regardless.
The site was awarded on 4 September 2026. So the clock runs to roughly September 2031, and it covers 1,010 homes.
The five-year window from award to the ABSD remission deadline · Phase timings are my estimates; the deadline is a rule
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Why that clock is good news for buyers
This is the practical takeaway and I think it is the most valuable thing on this page. A developer sitting on 1,010 units and a hard deadline cannot price for scarcity. Scarcity pricing works when you have 200 units and can afford to sell them slowly to the buyers who love the project most. It does not work when you need to move 28 homes a month for three years.
So my expectation — and this is opinion, not fact — is a launch that is priced to move volume rather than to test the ceiling. Large early-bird discounts, a wide unit mix with plenty of compact two-bedders to hold the entry quantum down, and aggressive first-weekend pricing to bank a headline take-up number. If you are a buyer, the opening weekend of a 1,010-unit project with a five-year clock is usually the cheapest that project will ever be.
There is a second consequence worth naming. Divide the GFA by the unit count and you get about 918 sq ft of gross floor area per home, which at 85% efficiency is roughly 780 sq ft of saleable area on average. That is a compact average. At S$2,900 psf it puts the average home at about S$2.26 million. Upgraders buy on quantum, not on psf, and S$2.26 million is inside reach for a Bedok household selling a million-dollar flat. I suspect that number, not the psf headline, is what the winning consortium underwrote.
How the East has priced recently · Sources: developer launch data and caveats, 2023–2026
| Project | Launched | Average price | How it went |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sceneca Residence Tanah Merah, 99-year | Jan 2023 | ~S$2,073 psf | Over 91% sold on caveats lodged. |
| Bagnall Haus Upper East Coast, freehold | 2025 | ~S$2,450 psf indicative | About 60% sold on the launch weekend at ~S$2,490 psf. |
| Vela Bay Bayshore, 99-year, 515 units | Apr 2026 | ~S$2,886 psf | 72% sold on the opening weekend. |
| Bedok Rise Tanah Merah, 99-year, ~380 units | Not launched | Not announced | Land awarded Dec 2025 at S$1,330 psf ppr from 10 bids. |
| New Upper Changi Rd Bedok, 99-year, ~1,010 units | Est. 2028 | Est. S$2,850–3,000+ psf | Nothing announced. No name, no scheme, no price list. |
Swipe to compare →
The estimate
What I think it launches at
This is the question everyone actually wants answered, so let me give a number rather than a range of other people’s numbers, and then show you exactly how I got there so you can move it.
My estimate: an average of S$2,950 to S$3,200 psf, with a central figure around S$3,050 psf, launching some time in 2028. That sits above the cautious end of the published estimates, and I will explain why I think it has to.
Why the estimate starts with a three
Work backwards from the floor. Costs stack to roughly S$2,317 per sq ft of gross floor area on my central assumptions. Only about 85% of that gross floor area becomes strata area a buyer pays for, so the true breakeven is nearer S$2,726 psf of saleable area — and somewhere between S$2,580 and S$2,790 once you flex construction costs and efficiency across a plausible band.
Now add a return. A developer carrying a S$1.43 billion land cost for five years is not doing it for 5%. On a project of this length and size the target is normally mid-teens; the ABSD clock argues for accepting less in exchange for volume. Split the difference and you want something in the region of 10% to 13%.
A 10% margin on central assumptions needs about S$3,030 psf. A 15% margin needs about S$3,207 psf. That is the whole basis of my S$2,950–3,200 range, and why my central figure of S$3,050 sits a little above ERA’s published S$2,850–2,900.
Published estimates against my breakeven arithmetic · Analyst figures as reported Sep 2026; breakeven and my estimate are my own calculation
Swipe to see the full range →
What the launch price has to be, at different construction costs · My arithmetic, at 85% efficiency, land fixed at S$1,537 psf GFA
| If construction costs | Breakeven | Price for 10% margin | Price for 15% margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| S$400 psf GFA optimistic | ~S$2,667 | ~S$2,963 | ~S$3,137 |
| S$450 psf GFA my central case | ~S$2,726 | ~S$3,029 | ~S$3,207 |
| S$500 psf GFA conservative | ~S$2,785 | ~S$3,094 | ~S$3,276 |
Swipe to see all three columns →
The price tag
What that means for an actual unit
Nobody buys a square foot. They buy a two-bedroom flat with a budget and a loan approval. So here is the same estimate translated into the number that matters.
The site’s gross floor area divided by 1,010 homes gives about 918 sq ft of GFA per home, which at 85% efficiency is an average saleable area of roughly 780 sq ft. That is a compact average, and it tells you the mix is weighted toward one- and two-bedders. Below is an illustrative mix that produces that 780 sq ft average and a blended price near my S$3,050 central estimate.
Illustrative unit mix and pricing at my central estimate · Entirely my own construction. No unit mix, size or price has been announced.
| Unit type | Size | Est. psf | Est. price | Share of mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-bedroom | ~500 sq ft | ~S$3,250 | ~S$1.63m | 12% |
| 2-bedroom | ~650 sq ft | ~S$3,150 | ~S$2.05m | 32% |
| 2-bedroom + study | ~750 sq ft | ~S$3,080 | ~S$2.31m | 26% |
| 3-bedroom | ~950 sq ft | ~S$2,980 | ~S$2.83m | 21% |
| 4-bedroom | ~1,300 sq ft | ~S$2,880 | ~S$3.74m | 9% |
| Blended average | ~780 sq ft | ~S$3,056 | ~S$2.38m | 100% |
Swipe to see price and mix →
The entry number, and why it decides everything
On these estimates the cheapest way into this project is around S$1.6 million, and the realistic family unit is S$2.0 to S$2.3 million. Hold that against the Bedok upgrader I described earlier: a household selling a flat at or near a million dollars, with a paid-down loan, walking away with S$600,000 to S$800,000 in hand.
That works. A S$2.05 million two-bedder with S$600,000 down needs a loan of about S$1.45 million, which on current rules is inside reach for a dual-income household in their thirties or forties. This is the arithmetic the winning consortium almost certainly ran, and it is why I think they were comfortable at S$1,537 when three rivals were not. They were not underwriting a psf headline. They were underwriting a S$2 million quantum against a queue of people holding S$1 million flats.
The risk sits at the other end. A 3-bedroom at S$2.83 million and a 4-bedroom near S$3.75 million in Bedok are genuinely ambitious numbers, and those are the units that would be slowest to clear. If the mix turns out to be heavy on large formats, my estimate is too high. If it is heavy on compact units, it is about right.
The potential
The upside case, and the test it has to pass
“Potential” is the most abused word in this industry, so let me define it as something checkable: what would have to be true for a buyer at S$3,050 psf in 2028 to be glad in 2035, and how likely is each part.
1. The supply gap is real and it lasts
This is the strongest leg. Roughly fifteen years without a new launch near Bedok Central, and no obvious second site of this scale in the pocket. The nearest competing new supply is Bedok Rise at Tanah Merah, roughly 380 homes from cheaper land, which is one stop away and a different product. After these two, the pipeline in this specific catchment is thin. A buyer here is not buying into a wave of supply, which is the single most common way new-launch buyers get hurt.
2. The upgrader queue keeps arriving
About 9,500 four- and five-room flats in the Bedok and Tampines belt reach MOP between 2026 and 2029, and Bedok is producing million-dollar resale flats at a record rate. This is a demand pool with dates attached rather than a forecast. The caveat is that it is a pool for the launch, not for the resale market in 2035 — those households will already own by then.
3. The rental leg is genuinely there
Bedok sits on the East–West Line one stop from Tanah Merah, where the branch line runs to Expo and Changi Airport. Changi Business Park and the Expo employment cluster are a short, direct commute, and Changi Airport is at the end of the same line. That is a real tenant catchment rather than a brochure claim, and it matters because it gives an owner a second exit.
The arithmetic is less romantic. A S$2.05 million two-bedder needs about S$4,270 a month to yield 2.5% gross, and about S$5,125 a month to yield 3%. Whether those rents are achievable in Bedok in 2032 is the question, and I would not pretend to know. What I will say is that buying at a record land price rarely produces a strong yield; it produces a capital-growth bet with a rental floor under it.
4. The test it has to pass: the gap to the resale stock
Here is the number I would not skip. Private condos in Bedok currently change hands in a broad band of roughly S$1,500 to S$2,100 psf depending on age and location. A new launch at S$3,050 psf is therefore something like 45% to 100% above the existing stock around it.
Some of that premium is normal and permanent — new is worth more than twenty years old, and always will be. But a gap of that width has to close from both ends over time: the new project drifts sideways for a few years after completion while the older stock catches up. That is the standard pattern, and it is why buying a record-priced new launch is a patient position rather than a quick one.
The concrete version of the test: if you buy at S$3,050 psf in 2028 and want to be up 20% by 2035, someone has to pay about S$3,660 psf for a seven-year-old leasehold condo in Bedok. Say that number out loud and decide whether you believe it. I think it is reachable on a normal decade, and I think it is far from guaranteed.
What makes the upside work
- No competing supply in the immediate catchment after Bedok Rise, and no obvious next site.
- Entry quantum near S$1.6m and a family unit near S$2.1m, which is inside reach for the exact households sitting on million-dollar Bedok flats.
- A dual exit — owner-occupier demand from upgraders, plus a genuine Changi Business Park and Expo rental catchment two stops away.
- Amenity already paid for. MRT, bus interchange, mall and schools exist today. There is no infrastructure promise to wait on.
- A five-year selling clock that pushes the developer toward volume pricing at launch rather than testing the ceiling.
What breaks it
- A 45% to 100% premium over the surrounding resale stock is a wide gap to defend at resale.
- Yield is thin. You need roughly S$4,300 a month on a S$2.05m two-bedder just to reach 2.5% gross.
- The exit needs about S$3,660 psf by 2035 for a 20% gain. That is a number, not a hope, and it may not arrive.
- Bedok Rise launches from cheaper land and can undercut on price while this project is still in planning.
- You are buying the winning bidder’s conviction. Three experienced rivals valued this land 13.8% lower. The launch price carries that difference, and the buyer pays it.
The read
Is this a confident market or a stretched one?
Both readings are defensible from the same set of facts, which is usually the sign of a genuinely uncertain moment rather than a stupid one. Here is each case at its strongest.
The case for
- The demand is countable, not hoped for. About 9,500 four- and five-room flats in the Bedok and Tampines belt reach MOP between 2026 and 2029. That is not sentiment, it is a queue with dates on it.
- The exit equity is proven. 44 million-dollar flats in Bedok in seven months, against 39 in all of 2025. These households can fund a S$2.2 million purchase from a sale, not from savings.
- Fifteen years of no new supply. Every buyer in that catchment who wanted new private stock had to leave the neighbourhood. This is the first product aimed straight at them in a long time.
- Scarcity of the site type. A 331,198 sq ft plot minutes from an MRT and bus interchange in a mature estate is close to unrepeatable. There is no obvious second bite.
- Three balance sheets, not one. The consortium structure lets each partner carry a third of a S$1.43 billion commitment, which materially lowers the return each needs.
The case against
- Three serious rivals said no at S$1,350. CDL, GuocoLand and Sim Lian all modelled this site and all landed within 3% of each other, S$187 psf ppr below. That is a lot of independent disagreement.
- The margin is thin on plausible assumptions. On my arithmetic the numbers only get comfortable at or above S$3,000 psf. That leaves very little room for construction inflation or a soft 2028.
- Land is now 53% of the expected selling price, up from 48% at Vela Bay and 42% at Springleaf. Each project has less cushion than the last.
- 1,010 units against a five-year clock. Roughly 28 sales a month for three years is achievable in a good market and punishing in a mediocre one.
- Bedok Rise is ahead in the queue. Allgreen’s roughly 380 homes at Tanah Merah, bought cheaper at S$1,330 psf ppr, will very likely launch first and can undercut on price while this one is still in planning.
Where I actually land
My read: this is a confident bid on a real, measurable demand pool, priced with almost no room for anything to go wrong. I do not think it is reckless. UOL and CapitaLand do not make reckless bids, and the demographic case underneath it is the most concrete I have seen attached to a GLS site in the East.
But I would separate two claims that get blurred together this week. “A record was paid, therefore the East is booming” does not follow. What actually happened is that three of four bidders priced the East at about S$1,330 psf ppr and one priced it at S$1,537. The record is one firm view, not a market average. If you are about to make a decision on your own property because of a headline, that distinction is the whole ballgame.
Action
What this means for you, depending on who you are
You own an HDB flat in Bedok
This does not raise the value of your flat. I want to be blunt about that, because a record land bid headline makes people think it does. Private land rates and HDB resale prices are only loosely connected, and the connection runs through sentiment, not through valuation.
What it does change is the cost of your next move. If upgrading to a new condo in your own neighbourhood was the plan, that plan just got about S$300 to S$400 psf more expensive than the last comparable launch in the East. If you were going to upgrade in 2028 anyway, being on the register early and knowing your numbers before the showflat opens is worth more than any amount of waiting to see.
You own a condo within a kilometre of the site
You are the clearest beneficiary, and the effect is real but slow. When a new project launches nearby at S$2,900 to S$3,000 psf, everything around it that is older and cheaper starts to look like value by comparison, and resale prices generally drift up toward it. The lift usually arrives around launch, in 2028, not now. Selling this month on the strength of a land-bid headline gets you nothing; the buyers have not repriced yet.
You are waiting to buy the new project
Three things to hold onto. First, there is no project name, no scheme, no price and no launch date. Anyone marketing units to you today is selling you a mailing list. Second, on a 1,010-unit project with a five-year clock, the opening weekend is usually the best pricing of the entire life of the launch — be ready for it rather than watching the first month from the sidelines. Third, ask about the unit mix before you ask about the psf. If the average saleable area really is near 780 sq ft, the quantum story and the psf story will point in different directions.
You are selling in the East in the next twelve months
Use the story, do not wait for it. The record is a genuinely useful talking point with buyers right now — it says the smartest capital in the country just paid a record to be in your postcode. That argument is available to you today, and it costs you nothing. What is not available is a price rise, because nothing has been built or launched yet.
You own landed property nearby and are thinking of right-sizing
Watch this one closely. If the product turns out to include a meaningful number of large units, this becomes the first credible right-sizing option in that pocket in years, with lifts, security and a walk to the MRT. The catch is that the average unit size implied by the GFA is compact, so large units may be scarce. That is a question to ask early rather than late.
Still open
What happens next, and what I will update here
The land is bought and almost nothing else is decided. Rather than write this once and leave it, I will keep the page current. These are the things genuinely unresolved as of 7 September 2026, in roughly the order I expect them to be answered.
1. The unit mix
The single most important number still missing, and the one I will chase hardest. The GFA implies an average saleable area near 780 sq ft. Whether that average is made of a broad spread including four-bedders and penthouses, or a tight band of one- and two-bedders built to hold the entry quantum down, tells you exactly which buyer this project is for. It also decides whether the right-sizer story survives contact with the floor plans.
2. The project name and the scheme
Neither exists. Design and planning approvals typically take one to two years from award. Until a scheme is lodged, every render you see attached to this site online is somebody’s illustration, including the ones on this page, which are labelled as such.
3. The launch date and the price list
Not announced. My working assumption is 2028, driven as much by the ABSD deadline as by construction sequencing. Treat any specific date you see before the developer says one as marketing.
4. Whether Bedok Rise launches first, and at what price
Allgreen bought Bedok Rise at Tanah Merah in December 2025 at S$1,330 psf ppr for roughly 380 homes, a smaller and cheaper site. If it launches meaningfully earlier and prices below S$2,800 psf, it takes the first slice of the same upgrader pool and sets an awkward benchmark. I will track both.
5. Construction costs between now and 2029
My S$450 psf assumption is the softest number in my arithmetic. A 10% move in construction costs shifts the breakeven by about S$50 psf of saleable area. Tender price indices over the next two years will quietly decide how much room this project has.
6. Whether the next East GLS site confirms or contradicts this
This is the honest test of whether S$1,537 was a market or an outlier. One more tender in the East clearing S$1,450 or above and the record becomes a level. One coming in at S$1,300 and it stays a single firm’s conviction. That is the number I am waiting for.
The neighbourhood
What 1,010 homes on that plot actually looks like
A plot ratio of 2.8 on 331,198 sq ft is dense, but it is the normal density for a site next to an MRT interchange in a mature estate — the planning intent is to put people where the trains already are. For comparison, Bedok Rise at Tanah Merah has a plot ratio of 1.6, which is why it yields roughly 380 homes on a site that is not far off half this one in GFA terms.
Practically, 1,010 homes at this density means several towers rather than a low-rise cluster, a large landscaped deck over car parking, and a full facilities count — because a project of this size has to compete on amenity as well as location. It also means about 2,500 to 3,000 additional residents arriving in one go, which is a real change to a settled neighbourhood, and is the part existing residents tend to raise first.
Questions people are asking me this week
A joint venture of UOL Group, CapitaLand Development and Singapore Land Group, bidding through United Venture Development (Daisy) Pte Ltd and CL Sapphire Pte Ltd. The bid was S$1,425,388,000, about S$1,537 psf ppr. The tender closed at noon on 1 September 2026 with four bids and the site was awarded on 4 September 2026.
Two records, in fact. It is the highest land rate ever paid for a pure residential Government Land Sales site in the Outside Central Region, beating S$1,388 psf ppr for the Bayshore Road plot in March 2025, now the 515-unit Vela Bay. It is also the largest total sum ever paid for a pure residential GLS site, beating the S$1.284 billion paid for Dunman Road in June 2022, now the 1,008-unit Grand Dunman.
About 1,010 private homes on a 99-year lease. The site is roughly 30,769 sq m, or 331,198 sq ft, with a maximum gross floor area of about 86,154 sq m, or 927,362 sq ft — a plot ratio of 2.8. Dividing GFA by units gives about 918 sq ft of gross floor area per home, which points to an average saleable area somewhere near 780 sq ft.
Nothing is announced and there is no project name yet. Published analyst estimates run from about S$2,850 to S$2,900 psf at the cautious end (ERA) to about S$3,000 psf and above at the bullish end (Knight Frank). My own estimate is S$2,950 to S$3,200 psf, centred on about S$3,050. I get there by working up from a calculated breakeven of roughly S$2,580 to S$2,790 psf of saleable area and adding the 10% to 13% margin a developer would need on a five-year project of this size. On those numbers a two-bedroom of about 650 sq ft lands near S$2.05 million and a one-bedroom near S$1.63 million. Treat every figure, mine included, as an estimate until a price list exists.
Not announced. Design and planning approvals typically take one to two years after award, which points to 2028. There is also a commercial reason not to drift: the ABSD remission a housing developer relies on requires the project to be completed and every unit sold within five years of buying the land, so the clock runs to roughly September 2031.
No, not directly, and I would be careful with anyone who tells you otherwise this week. A record private land rate does not reprice HDB resale flats; the link between them runs through sentiment rather than valuation. What it does change is the cost of upgrading out of your flat, which just went up. Nearby private condos are the ones most likely to see a real lift, and that usually arrives around launch in 2028 rather than now.
Waiting two years for a project with no name, no scheme and no price is a big commitment to make on a headline. If your move is time-sensitive — a school, a lease running down, a growing family — buy on your own timetable. If it is not, there is a reasonable case for being ready for the opening weekend, because a 1,010-unit project with a five-year selling clock usually prices its first weekend to move volume. Bedok Rise at Tanah Merah is also likely to launch earlier from cheaper land, so it is worth watching as an alternative rather than only as a comparison.
ERA counts two primary schools within one kilometre. Within roughly two kilometres sit Red Swastika School, St Stephen’s School, Anglican High School, St Patrick’s School, Victoria School, Temasek Junior College and Victoria Junior College. Primary One distance bands are measured door to door by HDB’s official tool, not by brochure maps, and no unit address exists for this site yet. Check any specific address with our 1km primary school check before relying on it.
Own in the East, or waiting on this launch?
Tell me your block and roughly when you were thinking of moving, and I will give you my honest read on whether this news helps you, costs you, or changes nothing. If the answer is do nothing until 2028, I will say that. I would rather be the agent you call when the price list drops than the one who talked you into something off a headline.
Sources and dates
Everything factual above is dated and attributable. Everything marked as my read, my arithmetic or an estimate is opinion or calculation, not reported fact. Figures were correct on 7 September 2026.
- URA Government Land Sales — New Upper Changi Road site. Tender launched 15 May 2026 on the Confirmed List of the 1H2026 GLS Programme; closed 12 noon, 1 September 2026 with four bids; awarded 4 September 2026. Site area 30,769.0 sq m, maximum GFA 86,154 sq m, 99-year lease, yield about 1,010 units. Winning bid S$1,425,388,000 to United Venture Development (Daisy) Pte Ltd and CL Sapphire Pte Ltd.
- Tender results for all four bids, 1 Sep 2026 — UOL, CapitaLand Development and SingLand at S$1.425b / S$1,537 psf ppr; City Developments with Hong Realty at S$1.252b / S$1,350; GuocoLand with Hong Leong Holdings and TID at S$1.243b / S$1,340; Sim Lian Group at S$1.215b / S$1,310.
- Singapore property news coverage of the award, 1–5 Sep 2026 — the record land rate for a pure residential OCR GLS site (previous mark S$1,388 psf ppr, Bayshore Road, March 2025, SingHaiyi and Haiyi Holdings, now the 515-unit Vela Bay), and the record absolute quantum for a pure residential GLS site (previous mark S$1.284 billion, Dunman Road, June 2022, now the 1,008-unit Grand Dunman).
- Analyst commentary published 1–5 Sep 2026 — Knight Frank head of research Leonard Tay on the demand base and a launch price from about S$3,000 psf; ERA Singapore chief executive Marcus Chu on the premium for mature-estate demand and a S$2,850–2,900 psf estimate; CBRE head of research Tricia Song describing the bid as significantly above expectations; Realion deputy group chief executive Justin Quek on right-sizers from Siglap and Opera Estate; SRI head of research Mohan Sandrasegeran on the scarcity of large East-region plots with MRT access.
- ERA Singapore commentary on the tender opening — five-minute walk to Bedok MRT and Bedok Mall, two primary schools within 1km, roughly fifteen years since a new launch near Bedok Central, and nearly 2,300 Bedok flats reaching MOP between 2022 and 2026.
- Bedok demand data cited in coverage, Sep 2026 — 755 HDB resale transactions in Bedok in the first seven months of 2026, of which 44 exceeded S$1 million against 39 in the whole of 2025; an estimated 9,500 four- and five-room flats in the Bedok and Tampines region reaching MOP between 2026 and 2029; schools within about 2km listed as Red Swastika, St Stephen’s, Anglican High, St Patrick’s, Victoria School, Temasek JC and Victoria JC.
- Comparable land rates — Bedok Rise, awarded to Allgreen December 2025 at S$464.8 million, S$1,330 psf ppr from 10 bids, plot ratio 1.6, about 380 homes; Clementi Avenue 1, November 2023, S$1,250 psf ppr.
- Comparable launch prices — Sceneca Residence, January 2023, about S$2,073 psf, over 91% sold on caveats; Bagnall Haus, indicative average about S$2,450 psf with about 60% sold on launch weekend at about S$2,490 psf; Vela Bay, April 2026, about S$2,886 psf with 72% sold on the opening weekend; Springleaf Residence, August 2025, land at S$905 psf ppr, about S$2,175 psf with 92% sold on the opening weekend.
- Construction cost guidance — published Singapore cost guides put condominium construction at roughly S$300 to S$600 psf of gross floor area, with mass-market projects at the lower end and premium ones above S$500 psf. My S$450 central case, and the S$400 to S$500 band I flex it across, sit inside that published range.
- Bedok private resale pricing — condos in the Bedok area currently transact in a broad band of roughly S$1,500 to S$2,100 psf depending on age and location, per market listings and project-level data, Sep 2026. Used only to size the gap between new-launch and resale pricing.
- My own arithmetic, not reported figures — the cost stack (land S$1,537 psf GFA as a fact; construction assumed at S$450 psf GFA; other costs assumed at S$330 psf GFA), the resulting breakeven of about S$2,317 psf GFA and roughly S$2,726 psf of saleable area at 85% efficiency, the S$2,580–S$2,790 breakeven band once construction and efficiency are flexed, the margin sensitivity tables, my launch estimate of S$2,950 to S$3,200 psf centred on S$3,050, the illustrative unit mix and per-unit prices, the land-as-a-share-of-price comparison, the implied average unit size of about 780 sq ft, the rental arithmetic (about S$4,270 a month for 2.5% gross on a S$2.05m unit), the S$3,660 psf exit test for a 20% gain by 2035, and the sales-rate arithmetic of roughly 17 units a month across five years or 28 a month from a 2028 launch.
- The ABSD framework for housing developers — the remission of the larger part of ABSD on residential land is conditional on completing the development and selling all units within five years of acquisition, with a further non-remittable component. Rates and conditions change; confirm the current position with IRAS before relying on it for a decision.
This article is general commentary on a publicly announced land tender. It is not financial advice and it is not a representation about any specific property or future launch. No project name, scheme, unit mix, price or launch date has been announced by the developer. If you are making a decision, get advice on your own numbers.