Q3 2026 final numbers: vacancy at 7.2%, HDB resale deals up 19.5%, and what the flash could not show
The headline private price rise held at 1.4%, so that is not the story. The story is everything the 1 October flash could not count: empty homes, rents by region, who was selling, and how many HDB flats changed hands.
The short version. URA and HDB published final 3Q 2026 figures on Fri 23 Oct 2026. The private price rise stayed at 1.4%. What is new: private vacancy rose to 7.2% (from 6.4%) as 3,559 homes completed, and HDB resale deals jumped 19.5% to 7,645 while the resale price index slipped 0.1% to 202.5.
My read: more finished homes and more HDB deals, with no price jump on either side. That rewards buyers who negotiate and landlords who price to the market, not to last year.
On Thu 1 Oct I wrote up the flash estimates in Q3 2026: private up, HDB resale down. I am not repeating that here. This piece is only about what the final releases added. The facts are URA’s and HDB’s; the sums and percentage-point gaps are mine, and my views are labelled.
7.2%
Private vacancy, end-Q3 2026 (6.4% end-Q2)
3,559
Private homes completed in Q3, incl. ECs
73.9%
Share of private deals that were resales
7,645
HDB resale flats sold in Q3 (+19.5%)
Flash against final
Did the final Q3 2026 numbers change the flash estimate?
Hardly, on prices. URA compiled the flash from data up to about mid-September; the final adds the rest of the quarter. The overall index did not move. The one revision worth a second look is the Core Central Region: a 0.1% dip became a 0.3% gain, so prime non-landed prices did not fall in Q3 after all. HDB revised its index from 202.4 to 202.5, which trims the quarterly fall from 0.2% to 0.1%.
Quarter-on-quarter price change, 3Q 2026 · Flash: URA pr26-69 and HDB, Thu 1 Oct 2026 · Final: URA pr26-73 and HDB, Fri 23 Oct 2026 · CCR, RCR and OCR are non-landed only
| Segment | Flash, Thu 1 Oct | Final, Fri 23 Oct | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| All private homes | +1.4% | +1.4% | None |
| Landed | +2.8% | +2.9% | Up 0.1 pt |
| Non-landed | +0.9% | +1.0% | Up 0.1 pt |
| CCR (core central) | −0.1% | +0.3% | Fall became a rise |
| RCR (city fringe) | +0.2% | 0.0% | Down 0.2 pt |
| OCR (suburbs) | +2.2% | +2.3% | Up 0.1 pt |
| HDB resale price index | 202.4 (−0.2%) | 202.5 (−0.1%) | Smaller fall |
Swipe to see the full table →
HDB describes the 0.1% as the third quarterly decline in a row, after −0.1% in Q1 and −0.3% in Q2. From 203.6 at the end of 2025 to 202.5 is a fall of about 0.5% over nine months, on my arithmetic. Landed homes stayed the strongest private segment at +2.9%.
New in the final release
Why did private home vacancy rise to 7.2% in Q3 2026?
A lot of homes were finished at once. URA counts 3,559 private units, executive condos included, that completed in Q3: almost three times Q2’s 1,212, and the most in a quarter since 3Q 2024. Leaving ECs out, the stock of completed private homes grew by 3,491. Occupied stock did not follow; URA has it 305 units lower than at the end of June. Keys were handed over before people moved in, and the vacancy rate climbed from 6.4% to 7.2% in three months.
Private residential vacancy rate, excluding ECs · Source: URA pr26-73, Fri 23 Oct 2026 · Change in percentage points is my arithmetic
| Region | End-Q2 2026 | End-Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All private | 6.4% | 7.2% | +0.8 pt |
| CCR | 8.3% | 8.4% | +0.1 pt |
| RCR | 6.1% | 7.4% | +1.3 pt |
| OCR | 5.6% | 6.5% | +0.9 pt |
Swipe to see the full table →
The city fringe moved most, up 1.3 points. The core central region barely moved, but it was already the emptiest of the three. More is coming: URA expects about 22,300 private homes, ECs included, to complete by 2028.
Rents
Are private rents still rising if more homes are empty?
Overall, yes. URA’s rental index rose 1.3% in Q3, after 0.7% in Q2. Landed rents gained 2.1% and non-landed 1.2%. The regional split is where the empty units show. Non-landed rents in the core central region slipped 0.3%, in the region with the highest vacancy. The suburbs went the other way: OCR rents rose 3.1%, after a 0.3% dip in Q2, and the city fringe rose 1.5%.
My read. A prime-district landlord is competing with the most empty units for the same tenant right now. One quarter is not a trend, and I would not reprice a lease on it alone, but I would not assume last year’s rent either.
Who sold
Who was selling private homes in Q3 2026?
Mostly existing owners. URA recorded 3,801 resales, 1,183 new sales by developers (ECs excluded) and 162 sub-sales. Resales made up 73.9% of all sale transactions, against 62.0% in Q2. That jump is not because resales grew; they were flat against Q2’s 3,813. Developer sales fell from 2,141 to 1,183, partly because developers launched fewer units, 1,140 against 1,783. EC developers launched nothing and sold 68. Adding URA’s three private counts gives 5,146 deals, about 16% fewer than Q2’s 6,148 (my sums). The month behind the developer figure is in my September 2026 new home sales piece.
URA’s release has no bedroom field, so I cannot say whether two-bedders or family units did the trading. For landed homes the release gives prices (+2.9%) and rents (+2.1%) but no landed transaction count in its text, and I have not counted one from the annex tables for this piece. My CCR, RCR and OCR price guide has the longer regional run.
HDB
How many HDB resale flats were sold in Q3 2026?
7,645, according to HDB’s release of Fri 23 Oct. That is 19.5% more than Q2’s 6,396 and 5.9% more than the 7,221 in Q3 2025. So many more flats changed hands, and the index still edged down. HDB’s release does not split the 7,645 by flat type. My earlier count from data.gov.sg rows, from 3-room through Executive Apartment and Executive Maisonette, is in the flash article; I have not re-counted it against the final total.
HDB also answered something I am asked often. Since 28 Jul 2026, current and former private property owners no longer serve the 15-month wait before buying a resale flat (a rule in place since 30 Sep 2022). HDB says it has not seen a significant rise in either the prices or the number of resale flats this group has bought since then.
Fewer owners are letting out their flats. HDB approved 9,381 applications to rent out flats in Q3, down 6.2% from 10,002 in Q2 and 7.3% below 3Q 2025. The number of flats rented out at the end of September was 59,378, up 0.9% from June.
My read
What do the final numbers change for landlords, sellers and upgraders?
Buying a completed unit to rent out
Vacancy at the end of Q3 was 8.4% in the CCR, 7.4% in the RCR and 6.5% in the OCR. If you are buying a completed or nearly completed private unit to let, I would put an empty month or two between tenants into your sums before you commit, not after.
Selling an HDB flat
More buyers are transacting, but the index is not climbing. Expect more viewings rather than bidding wars, and price against recent deals in your own block and street. A sale plan built on that holds up better than one built on hope.
Upgrading: sell first, then buy
Your flat’s price is flat, private resale is three quarters of the market, and developer sales are thin. That gives you room to compare resale condos with new launches. Time the sale and purchase to your own finances, as in my upgrading guide, not to a price call.
Still open
What happens next
I will add to this page as each of these is published.
1. Orchard Boulevard, closed Thu 29 Oct 2026
URA’s tender for the Orchard Boulevard site closed today. URA had not published the bids when I wrote this. It follows Marina Gardens Lane, which drew one bid and was awarded to EL Development on Mon 26 Oct at $450.1 million; my Marina Gardens Lane article has the detail.
2. The November BTO exercise
New BTO supply competes with resale flats for the same buyers. My project-by-project read is in the November 2026 BTO launch article.
3. The next flash estimates, for Q4 2026
URA and HDB have not dated them in these releases. They will show whether completions keep pushing vacancy up, and whether HDB’s run of small falls reaches four quarters. I will not call either in advance.
Questions people are asking me about the Q3 2026 figures
7.2% at the end of the third quarter of 2026, up from 6.4% at the end of June, according to URA's release of 23 October 2026. By region it was 8.4% in the Core Central Region, 7.4% in the Rest of Central Region and 6.5% in the Outside Central Region. The rise came as 3,559 private homes, including executive condos, were completed in the quarter.
Not for the headline. Private home prices rose 1.4% on both the 1 October flash and the 23 October final. The segments moved slightly: landed went from +2.8% to +2.9%, the Core Central Region from -0.1% to +0.3%, the Rest of Central Region from +0.2% to 0.0%, and the Outside Central Region from +2.2% to +2.3%.
HDB recorded 7,645 resale transactions in the third quarter of 2026, up 19.5% from 6,396 in the second quarter and 5.9% above the 7,221 in Q3 2025. HDB published the figure on 23 October 2026. Its release does not split the total by flat type.
202.5, down 0.1% from the second quarter, in HDB's final release of 23 October 2026. HDB's flash estimate on 1 October had been 202.4, down 0.2%. HDB describes it as the third quarterly decline in a row, after -0.1% in Q1 and -0.3% in Q2 2026.
Overall, yes. URA's rental index rose 1.3% in Q3 2026, with landed rents up 2.1% and non-landed up 1.2%. Non-landed rents fell 0.3% in the Core Central Region but rose 1.5% in the Rest of Central Region and 3.1% in the Outside Central Region.
1,183 units excluding executive condos, down from 2,141 in Q2, on URA's final figures. Developers launched 1,140 units, against 1,783 in Q2. Resales, at 3,801, made up 73.9% of all private sale transactions in the quarter.
Not significantly, according to HDB. In its 23 October 2026 release, HDB said it had not observed a significant increase in the prices or number of resale flats bought by current and former private property owners since the 15-month wait-out was removed on 28 July 2026. HDB gave no count for this group.
Landlord, seller or upgrader? Ask me what this means for you.
Tell me the block or project you own or are looking at. I will put the recent transactions and rents side by side and tell you what I would check in your position.
Sources and dates
The facts are URA’s and HDB’s, restated in my own words. Sums, percentage-point changes and the nine-month HDB change are my calculations. Opinion is labelled “my read”. Final figures are as at Fri 23 Oct 2026; flash figures as at Thu 1 Oct 2026; the land sale status is as at Thu 29 Oct 2026.
- URA, Release of 3rd Quarter 2026 real estate statistics (pr26-73), Fri 23 Oct 2026. Source for the final price changes by segment, rents, developer launches and sales, EC sales, resales, sub-sales and their shares, completions, stock, vacancy by region and the completion pipeline.
- URA, Release of flash estimate for 3rd Quarter 2026 private residential property price index (pr26-69), Thu 1 Oct 2026. Source for the flash column of the first table and the mid-September data cut-off.
- HDB, 3rd Quarter 2026 Public Housing Data and Upcoming Flat Supply, published Fri 23 Oct 2026. Source for the resale price index of 202.5, the three quarterly declines, resale volumes, the statement on private property owners and the 28 Jul 2026 and 30 Sep 2022 dates, rental approvals and flats rented out. HDB’s flash index of 202.4 is from its 1 Oct 2026 release as recorded in my flash article; the 203.6 end-2025 level is from the same article.
- URA, Tender award for URA sale site at Marina Gardens Lane (pr26-74), Mon 26 Oct 2026. Source for the award and price.
- My own analysis, not reported fact: the 5,146 total (1,183 + 3,801 + 162), the 16% fall against 6,148, the percentage-point vacancy changes, “almost three times” (3,559 against 1,212), the −0.5% nine-month HDB change, and every “my read”. URA data has no bedroom field and HDB’s release has no flat-type split of volume, so neither is given here.
This article is general commentary on public data. It is not financial advice and not a forecast of any property’s price or rent. VionaPropnex is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or speaking for URA or HDB; for the authoritative figures, use their own releases.